Futures Edge Up as Fed Meets; Boeing, UPS and Coca-Cola Report; Meta Raise Hits $97.5 Billion

Good morning. This is Trade and Ticker. Tuesday, October twenty-seventh, twenty twenty-six. Here's what you need to know before the opening bell.

Daily Catalysts. Four things to watch today. First, the Federal Reserve starts its two-day meeting this morning, one day ahead of its decision and big tech earnings. Second, a busy morning of earnings, with Boeing, U-P-S, Coca-Cola, and PayPal all out. Third, Meta made its record stock sale even bigger, and Nvidia is putting in three billion dollars. Fourth, after the close, we hear from Visa, Seagate, and Robinhood. We'll get into each of these as we go.

Let's start with U.S. futures. The board is pointing a little higher again. As of about eight o'clock Eastern, Dow futures are up about a quarter of a percent, or roughly one hundred thirty points. S-and-P futures are also up about a quarter of a percent. And Nasdaq futures are leading, up a bit under four-tenths of a percent. It's a cautious move higher, with the market waiting on the Fed and Microsoft and Alphabet on Wednesday.

Here's where we're coming from. On Monday, chip stocks bounced hard after Anthropic filed publicly for its stock market debut. The Philadelphia chip index jumped almost three percent. The Nasdaq rose about eight-tenths of a percent, the S-and-P gained about seven-tenths, and the Dow added about three-tenths. That was enough for the S-and-P to win back all of last week's losses.

Oil is easing for a second day. Brent crude is down a little under one percent, to around one hundred fifteen dollars a barrel, still close to its highest level since late April. U.S. crude is down about six-tenths of a percent, to around one hundred one dollars. Attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf are still keeping prices high. The ten-year Treasury yield is just under five percent. And the market's fear gauge, the V-I-X, is lower again, near eighteen.

In early trading, the chip rally is still going, just at a slower pace. Broadcom is up about two and a half percent, Micron is up about two percent, and A-M-D is up more than one and a half. Nvidia is up almost one percent, and Tesla is up about one percent after Monday's five percent jump. Microsoft and Apple are a little lower.

Now let's get into those four things to watch.

First, the Fed. Policymakers start meeting today and announce their decision Wednesday afternoon. After raising rates in September, the Fed is widely expected to hold steady this time. Traders put the odds of a hike this week at only about ten percent. But inflation is still running hot with oil this high, and markets are betting on more hikes ahead, possibly as soon as December. So the big question for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is what he signals about the next move. Then, after Wednesday's close, Microsoft and Alphabet report, with Amazon on Thursday.

Second, this morning's earnings. Boeing's revenue rose four percent, to about twenty-four-point-two billion dollars, helped by a fifteen percent jump in defense sales. But its adjusted loss was thirty-four cents a share, wider than the twenty-one cent loss Wall Street expected. Boeing's order backlog hit a record seven hundred forty-five billion dollars. The stock is up slightly, and the earnings call is at ten-thirty Eastern. U-P-S beat expectations and raised its forecast for the year, now calling for about ninety-two-point-six billion dollars in revenue, up from ninety-one-point-two billion. The company says higher-paying international air shipments helped, as it keeps cutting back on lower-margin Amazon deliveries. U-P-S shares are up more than one percent. Coca-Cola raised its full-year outlook for the third straight quarter. It earned ninety-one cents a share on an adjusted basis, three cents better than expected, and now sees adjusted earnings growing at least eleven percent this year. The stock is a touch higher. And PayPal is down about one and a half percent. Revenue of eight-point-five-eight billion dollars came in below estimates, even though the company raised its full-year profit forecast to about five dollars and sixty cents a share.

A few other movers. Royal Caribbean is up about five percent after beating profit estimates and raising its outlook. Celestica is up more than ten percent after raising its full-year forecast. JetBlue is up more than ten percent after saying it expects better margins in the fourth quarter, even with fuel costs far higher than last year. And Whirlpool is down more than five percent after a surprise loss and a cut to its sales forecast.

Third, Meta's money. On Monday, Meta laid out a plan to raise about ninety-five billion dollars by selling stock to pay for its A-I build-out. This morning, it made that even bigger. Meta raised the size of its common stock sale from twenty-two-point-five billion dollars to twenty-five billion, priced at six hundred twenty-five dollars a share. That brings the full plan to ninety-seven-point-five billion dollars, the largest fundraising in the company's history. Nvidia says it will invest three billion dollars in the offering, and the two companies are expanding their work together on Meta's Muse A-I assistant. A-M-D and Broadcom have also shown interest in buying shares. That's raising questions about money going in a circle, with chip suppliers helping fund one of their biggest customers. Meta is down a little under half a percent in early trading.

Fourth, after the close. Visa is the biggest report of the day, and investors want to see whether high gas prices are slowing consumer spending. Seagate reports too, a key read on data storage demand from A-I customers. Robinhood and Waste Management round out the list.

On today's calendar, September durable goods orders come out at eight-thirty Eastern. At ten o'clock, we get the Conference Board's consumer confidence reading, expected to slip to around eighty-one, along with new home sales. And the Treasury sells five-year notes at one o'clock.

Here's what could knock this rally off course. Watch three things. First, oil and the Middle East. Israelis vote today in an election that could shape the war with Iran, and any new attacks on shipping could send crude back up. Second, the ten-year yield. It's sitting right around five percent, and a hawkish tone from the Fed could push it higher. Third, the A-I trade. Chip stocks just had a big bounce, and investors could take some money off the table before Microsoft and Alphabet report.

So here's the picture heading into the open. Futures are slightly higher, with the Nasdaq leading. Oil is easing, chip stocks are still climbing, and Meta's giant stock sale just got bigger. Boeing, U-P-S, and Coca-Cola are set to open higher, while PayPal and Whirlpool are lower. And the Fed meeting starts today.

Quickly overseas. South Korea's market jumped about three percent on chip stocks, and Tokyo rose almost two percent. Hong Kong slipped about seven-tenths of a percent. Europe is mixed.

We'll be back at lunch with how Boeing, the chip stocks, and the market are trading ahead of Visa. Thanks for listening. I'm Trade and Ticker.