Futures Rise Into Fed and Big Tech Week; Meta Plans $95 Billion Stock Sale; Brazil Plunges

Good morning. This is Trade and Ticker. Monday, October twenty-sixth, twenty twenty-six. Your map into the open: futures, catalysts, and what could move the first hour.

Daily Catalysts. Four things to watch today. First, this is one of the biggest weeks of the year, with a Fed decision and earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon. Second, Meta plans to raise up to ninety-five billion dollars by selling stock to pay for its A-I build-out. Third, Verizon reported this morning, and natural gas producer E-Q-T is buying Range Resources. Fourth, Brazilian stocks are crashing after a surprise election result. We'll get into each of these as we go.

Let's start with U.S. futures. After two losing weeks for the S-and-P, the board is pointing higher this morning. As of about eight o'clock Eastern, Dow futures are up about four-tenths of a percent, or a little over two hundred points. S-and-P futures are up about a third of a percent. And Nasdaq futures are leading, up about half a percent. Tech is trying to bounce.

Here's where we're coming from. On Friday, the Dow fell about one and a quarter percent, or roughly six hundred fifty points, as phone company stocks sank. The S-and-P lost about half a percent, and the Nasdaq slipped about two-tenths of a percent. For the week, the S-and-P fell about half a percent and the Nasdaq lost about seven-tenths, their second straight weekly loss. The Dow still managed a small gain, its third weekly gain in a row.

Oil is giving back some of last week's surge. Brent crude is down about one and a half percent, to around one hundred fifteen dollars a barrel, after it finished last week up about six percent. U.S. crude is down about two percent, to around one hundred one dollars. Over the weekend, Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran to try to calm tensions with the U.S., even as the Houthis kept up attacks on Saudi Arabia. The ten-year Treasury yield is right around five percent. And the market's fear gauge, the V-I-X, is a little lower, near nineteen.

In early trading, most of the big tech names are higher. Nvidia is up about one percent, Micron is up about two and a half, and A-M-D and Intel are each up more than one percent. Tesla is up about two percent after Barclays upgraded the stock, pointing in part to a possible deal opportunity with SpaceX. Meta is up more than one percent. Apple is a laggard, down about one percent.

Now let's get into those four things to watch.

First, the big week. The Federal Reserve starts its two-day meeting on Tuesday and announces its decision Wednesday afternoon. After raising rates in September, the Fed is widely expected to hold steady this time. But traders still see a December hike as a real possibility, so listen for what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says about the path from here. Then, Wednesday after the close, Microsoft and Alphabet report, with Amazon on Thursday. About a third of the S-and-P reports this week. Thursday also brings the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the September P-C-E report, along with the first look at third-quarter growth. After last week's A-I selloff, investors want proof that all this spending is starting to pay off.

Second, Meta's money. Meta says it will raise thirty-five billion dollars right away through stock offerings, and later up to sixty billion more by selling shares gradually into the market. That's ninety-five billion dollars in all, to fund A-I data centers and what it calls superintelligence. Last week, Meta stock fell hard after it raised its spending forecast and showed negative free cash flow. This morning, the stock is up more than one percent, so investors seem relieved to see the plan laid out. The A-I cloud names are a different story. Elon Musk posted on Sunday that markets have almost entirely shut off money for companies that depend on A-I data centers, and he predicted a shakeout among those smaller cloud providers. CoreWeave is down a few percent in early trading, and Iren is down about two percent. CoreWeave and Nebius have each lost more than thirty percent this month.

Third, deals and earnings. Verizon earned one dollar and thirty-one cents a share on an adjusted basis, three cents better than expected. Revenue of about thirty-four-point-three billion dollars came in a little light. But Verizon added four hundred six thousand phone subscribers who pay a monthly bill, nearly double what analysts expected, and it raised its profit forecast for the year to between five dollars and four cents and five-oh-six a share. It also signed an A-I infrastructure deal worth more than two billion dollars with Amazon Web Services. The stock rose at first this morning, then slipped about one percent lower. After Friday's drop on the SpaceX wireless report, that one's worth watching at the open. In energy, E-Q-T is buying Range Resources in an all-stock deal valued at more than fifty billion dollars including debt. The companies say it would create the country's largest integrated natural gas producer, as data centers drive up demand for gas. Range is up about thirteen percent, and E-Q-T is down about five.

A few other movers. Moderna is down about eight percent, adding to last week's slide after early cancer vaccine data leaked. Surgery Partners is up more than twenty percent on a report that a nonprofit hospital group is close to a takeover. Ross Stores is higher after a U-B-S upgrade. And Fair Isaac, the company behind the FICO credit score, is down about nine percent after a Wells Fargo downgrade.

Fourth, Brazil. President Lula won a fourth term on Sunday, beating Flavio Bolsonaro, the candidate investors had been betting on. The reaction is huge. The biggest U.S.-listed Brazil stock fund is down about a quarter in early trading. U.S. shares of the state oil company Petrobras are down about twenty percent, and the Brazilian brokerage X-P is down nearly half. Investors are worried about government spending and debt under another Lula term.

On today's calendar, a Chicago Fed reading on national activity comes out at eight-thirty Eastern. The Dallas Fed's factory survey is at ten-thirty, and the Treasury sells sixty-nine billion dollars of two-year notes at one o'clock. After the close, we hear from chip design software maker Cadence, steelmaker Nucor, and Welltower.

Here's what could turn this bounce around. Watch three things. First, oil. If talks with Iran stall and the Saudi attacks escalate, Brent could head right back toward last week's highs. Second, the ten-year yield. If it pushes further above five percent ahead of the Fed, that's pressure on tech. Third, the A-I cloud names. If CoreWeave and its peers keep sliding, the worry about A-I spending could spread back into the chip stocks.

So here's the picture heading into the open. Futures are higher across the board, with the Nasdaq leading at about half a percent. Oil is down from near six-month highs, Meta has a plan to fund its A-I spending, and Brazil is selling off hard. And the week ahead brings the Fed, plus Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon.

Quickly overseas. Tokyo fell almost one percent, while Hong Kong rose about half a percent. Europe is higher, up about half a percent.

We'll be back at lunch with how tech, oil, and Verizon are trading as the big week gets going. Thanks for listening. I'm Trade and Ticker.