Nasdaq Futures Rebound After Worst Week Since June; Cleveland-Cliffs Jumps

Good morning. This is Trade and Ticker. Monday, October nineteenth, twenty twenty-six. Here's what you need to know before the opening bell.

Daily Catalysts. Four things to watch today. First, a bounce in the A-I and chip stocks after the Nasdaq's worst week since June. Second, the biggest earnings week of the season so far, with SpaceX and Netflix on Tuesday, then Tesla and Meta on Wednesday. Third, oil and bond yields, both lower this morning, which gives stocks a little breathing room. Fourth, early earnings from Cleveland-Cliffs and Fifth Third, plus an upgrade for Intel. We'll get into each of these as we go.

Let's start with U.S. futures. The board is mixed, but tech is leading the way back. As of about eight o'clock Eastern, Nasdaq futures are up about one percent. S-and-P futures are up close to half a percent. And Dow futures are a little lower, down about a quarter of a percent. Nasdaq is carrying the open, while the Dow is lagging after holding up so well last week.

That follows a rough Friday. The Nasdaq fell about two-point-one percent. The S-and-P dropped about one-point-one percent. The Dow slipped about a third of a percent. The Philadelphia chip index fell almost four percent, its eighth straight loss and its longest losing streak since twenty oh-eight. For the week, the Nasdaq lost about four and a half percent, its worst week since June. The S-and-P fell nearly two percent. The Dow still finished the week up about seven-tenths of a percent.

Oil is lower after touching one hundred ten dollars on Friday. Brent crude is down more than one percent this morning, to around one hundred eight dollars a barrel. U.S. crude is a little lower too. The ten-year Treasury yield is a touch lower, just above five percent, after its biggest weekly drop in more than eight months.

In early trading, the beaten-up A-I names are bouncing. Nebius is up about seven percent, and CoreWeave is up about six and a half percent. Nvidia is up about two percent. A-M-D and Micron are both up more than three and a half percent. Intel is up about four percent. Tesla and Meta are roughly flat ahead of their reports on Wednesday. And Cleveland-Cliffs, the steelmaker, is jumping about twelve percent after its earnings.

Now let's get into those four things to watch.

First, the A-I bounce. Last week was brutal for anything tied to the A-I build-out. The worry was about money. Investors are asking whether the companies building data centers, many of them with heavy debt, can earn enough to pay for it, especially with rates this high. CoreWeave lost about a quarter of its value last week, and yields on its bonds touched fifteen percent. This morning, buyers are stepping back in. Analysts at Truist repeated their buy ratings on both Nebius and CoreWeave. And a report from The Information over the weekend said Nvidia is backing a small group of the strongest A-I cloud providers with easier credit terms and help with leases. The big question for today is whether this bounce holds once the bell rings. On Friday, an early gain in Tesla turned into a loss by the close. A bounce that holds into the afternoon would say more than one that fades in the first hour.

Second, earnings. Nearly fifteen percent of the companies in the S-and-P report this week. SpaceX goes first among the giants, after the close on Tuesday. Wall Street expects revenue of about twelve-point-nine billion dollars, and it would be the company's first profitable quarter since its I-P-O. Netflix, United Airlines, and Capital One also report Tuesday after the close. Then on Wednesday after the close, it's Tesla, Meta, I-B-M, Texas Instruments, and Lam Research. Meta is the one to watch for the A-I trade. Investors want to see that all that spending on data centers is turning into revenue and profit, not just another bigger spending plan. Goldman Sachs estimates that the five biggest A-I spenders, Meta among them, will spend about one-point-two trillion dollars combined next year.

Third, oil and rates. Oil is lower after President Trump moved to waive some sanctions on Russia. He said a final decision has not been made, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the president would take up to sixty days to judge the impact. The Middle East is still a risk. Iran reported another tanker hit a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, and there were more reports of attacks on tankers in the region over the weekend. For stocks, the move in bonds matters just as much. The ten-year yield fell sharply last week, as investors used Treasuries as a safe place to hide. Lower yields help the most heavily borrowed growth companies. The Fed is now in its quiet period ahead of next week's meeting, on October twenty-seventh and twenty-eighth. Traders see only a small chance of a hike this month, but a December hike is still almost fully priced in. On today's calendar, we get a reading on homebuilder confidence at ten o'clock Eastern.

Fourth, the early earnings and an upgrade. Cleveland-Cliffs earned twenty-eight cents a share on an adjusted basis, well above the twenty-two cents analysts expected. Revenue rose about eighteen percent from a year ago, to five-point-six billion dollars, a little short of forecasts. The company called it its strongest quarter in three years, thanks to higher steel prices, and it expects earnings to keep rising next year. Fifth Third, the regional bank, earned a dollar thirteen a share on an adjusted basis, well above forecasts of ninety-six cents, helped by its deal for Comerica. But revenue came in a little light, and the stock is down about one and a half percent in early trading. And Intel is higher after JPMorgan upgraded the chipmaker to neutral from underweight. The analyst said Intel's turnaround will take years, but management has made a solid start. Intel had fallen about thirty-six percent from its June peak.

Here's what would turn this bounce into another down day. Watch three things. First, if the A-I names fade after the open, the way Tesla did on Friday. Second, if oil jumps again on a new attack in the Gulf and pushes yields back up. Third, if the chip index can't break its losing streak and makes it nine in a row.

So here's the picture heading into the open. Nasdaq futures are up about one percent, the S-and-P is pointing higher, and the Dow is a little lower. The A-I and chip names that got hit hardest last week are bouncing, led by Nebius and CoreWeave. Oil and Treasury yields are both lower. Cleveland-Cliffs is jumping on its earnings. And the big tests come later this week, with SpaceX on Tuesday and Tesla and Meta on Wednesday.

Quickly overseas. China's economy grew four and a half percent in the third quarter, a little better than expected. South Korea rose almost two percent, while Tokyo slipped. Europe is lower, with France down more than one percent after weekend protests over the government's budget.

We'll be back at lunch with how the bounce is holding up and what still matters into the afternoon. Thanks for listening. I'm Trade and Ticker.