Futures Rise as AI Stocks Rebound on OpenAI; Delta Cuts Outlook, Telecoms Slide

Good morning. This is Trade and Ticker. Friday, October ninth, twenty twenty-six. Your map into the open — futures, catalysts, and what could move the first hour.

Daily Catalysts. Four things to watch today. First, the A-I trade, which is bouncing back after a rough Thursday, thanks to a new report on OpenAI's revenue. Second, Delta Air Lines, which kicked off airline earnings this morning and cut its full-year profit forecast because of fuel. Third, a big shake-up in wireless, with SpaceX buying a block of airwaves and telecom stocks sliding. Fourth, oil and the consumer, with crude lower after President Trump's comments on Iran, and a first read on October consumer sentiment at ten o'clock Eastern. We'll get into each of these as we go.

Let's start with U.S. futures. The board is pointing higher, and tech is doing the lifting. As of about eight o'clock Eastern, Nasdaq futures are up about eight-tenths of a percent. S-and-P futures are up about four-tenths of a percent. Dow futures are up a little more than one-tenth of a percent, or roughly seventy points. The Nasdaq is carrying the open after taking the biggest hit on Thursday.

That follows a mixed day on Thursday. The Dow edged up about one-tenth of a percent. The S-and-P finished about half a percent lower, and the Nasdaq finished about one-and-a-quarter percent lower, as chip and A-I stocks sold off. Even with two down days in a row, the S-and-P and the Nasdaq are still on track for a gain this week, after both hit record highs earlier in the week.

Now rates. The ten-year Treasury yield is holding steady at about five-point-two-three percent. That is down from the five-point-three-three it touched on Thursday morning, before a solid thirty-year bond auction helped pull long-term yields lower. The thirty-year yield is around five-point-six-one percent.

Oil is lower this morning. Brent crude is down more than one percent, to roughly one hundred three dollars a barrel. U.S. crude is down about one percent, to around ninety and a half dollars. The pullback follows President Trump saying on Thursday that the U.S. is having productive discussions with Iran and that no attack is planned before next month's midterm elections. Iran's Tasnim news agency reported that the foreign minister said Tehran is reviewing the U.S. response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Even with today's dip, Brent is still on track for a gain this week. And Hurricane Isaias is still a big factor. As of Thursday, about sixty-three percent of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico had been shut in ahead of the storm, according to the federal agency that oversees offshore drilling. Gold is up about one percent.

In early trading, the A-I names are bouncing. Nvidia is up about one and a half percent. A-M-D, Broadcom, and Micron are each up close to two percent. Oracle is up more than one and a half percent, and CoreWeave is up more than two percent. Microsoft, Tesla, and Amazon are higher too. Lumentum, which makes optical parts for data centers, is up about six percent after its C-E-O, Michael Hurlston, said its components are sold out through twenty twenty-nine.

Apple is the big exception. It is down about two percent after Nikkei Asia reported that Apple has asked some suppliers to cut October orders for iPhone eighteen Pro components by fifteen to twenty percent, as rising memory chip costs push up prices and cool demand. Apple has not confirmed the report.

Health insurers are swinging after the government released its twenty twenty-seven Medicare Advantage star ratings. Humana is up about fifteen percent. Its biggest Medicare Advantage contract moved back up to four stars, and the government data shows about ninety-five percent of its members are in plans rated four stars or higher. That matters because those ratings decide who gets federal bonus payments. Alignment Healthcare is going the other way, down more than twenty percent.

Quickly overseas. Hong Kong rose almost two percent, and Tokyo finished about flat. South Korea's market was closed for a holiday. Europe is up a little more than one percent.

Now let's get into those four things to watch.

First, the A-I trade. On Thursday, the Financial Times reported that OpenAI's annualized revenue was about fifty billion dollars at the end of September. That is about twenty billion dollars below what had been signaled before, and it sent chip stocks sharply lower. Then overnight, Bloomberg reported that OpenAI expects its annualized revenue to reach or top seventy billion dollars by the end of the year, driven mostly by business customers. That is what turned futures around. The question for today is whether buyers come back for the whole chip group, or whether this is a one-morning bounce. A lot of money is riding on the idea that A-I spending keeps growing, so any doubt about OpenAI's revenue hits a wide range of stocks.

Second, Delta. Delta reported adjusted earnings of one dollar and seventy-two cents a share, a hair below what Wall Street expected. Adjusted revenue rose about sixteen percent, to about seventeen-point-six billion dollars, and premium revenue rose about eighteen percent. Demand is not the problem. Fuel is. Delta's third-quarter fuel bill jumped about sixty-two percent from a year ago, and it now expects to pay roughly six billion dollars more for fuel this year. So it cut its full-year earnings forecast to a range of five dollars and ten cents to five dollars and sixty cents a share, down from six-fifty to seven-fifty back in July. On the bright side, Delta says the fourth quarter is almost sixty percent booked, and it expects revenue to grow about twenty percent. The stock is lower in early trading. Delta is the first big airline to report, with United, American, and Southwest coming later this month, so this sets the tone for the whole group.

Third, wireless. After Thursday's close, SpaceX agreed to buy a nationwide block of low-band airwaves from the investment firm Grain Management, which bought them from T-Mobile earlier this year. The price was not disclosed, and the deal still needs approval from the Federal Communications Commission. Low-band airwaves travel farther and get through walls better, which helps SpaceX's Starlink phone service compete more directly with the big carriers. SpaceX is up nearly four percent. T-Mobile is down about seven percent, A-T-and-T is down more than six percent, and Verizon is down more than five percent. Cell tower companies are rallying on the idea of a new customer. Crown Castle is up about eight percent, and American Tower and S-B-A Communications are up sharply as well.

Fourth, oil and the consumer. Oil is easing on hopes of calmer relations with Iran, but the hurricane is still bearing down on the Gulf Coast, and the threat to shipping in the Gulf is still there. At ten o'clock Eastern, the University of Michigan releases its first read on October consumer sentiment. With oil above one hundred dollars, the inflation expectations inside that report will get a lot of attention. Rising expectations would keep pressure on the Fed to raise rates again. Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks this afternoon.

Here's what would turn a higher open around. Watch three things. First, the chip bounce fading in the first hour, which would suggest Thursday's worries about OpenAI have not gone away. Second, oil reversing higher on new Gulf attacks or hurricane damage. Third, a jump in inflation expectations in the consumer sentiment report. On the other side, steady oil and a calm bond market would give the rebound room to run into the weekend.

So here's the picture heading into the open. Futures are higher, led by the Nasdaq, as A-I stocks bounce on a better report on OpenAI's revenue. Oil is down more than one percent, and the ten-year yield is steady near five-point-two-three percent. Delta is lower after cutting its outlook on fuel costs, telecom stocks are sliding on SpaceX's airwaves deal, tower stocks are rallying, Humana is soaring, and Apple is lower on a report of iPhone order cuts.

We'll be back at midday with the lunch show: whether the A-I rebound holds, how airlines are trading after Delta, and what the consumer sentiment report says about inflation. Thanks for listening. I'm Trade and Ticker.